With Cristobal moving out to sea, we’re looking elsewhere for the next potential threats to land. This afternoon, the Gulf of Mexico has received a lot of online commentary. Mid-level shortwave troughs are moving southwest into the northern Gulf around the southern flank of a mid-level steering ridge over the US. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are likely offshore over the next several days. Given the time of the year, any persistent convective activity over open waters needs to be monitored. However, given the current lack of organization, minimal pressure falls, and conservative solutions from reliable model guidance, chances of short term development are likely near 5% at this time.
Additionally, the Hurricane Center is monitoring a tropical wave in the central Atlantic. They give this wave a 30% chance of cyclone formation within five days. Odds are likely much lower than that due to shear and dry air. The most we’ve seen out of any disturbances of deep-tropics origin are lackluster storms like TD2, Bertha, and Cristobal.