Tropics Alert: 99L a Threat

Wed AM: we can’t stress enough for everyone in south Florida and along the US Gulf Coast to monitor the tropics through the end of the week and weekend. A significant event is still far from a slam dunk and there is a lot of uncertainty, but there is strong potential with Disturbance 99L. If 99L is well defined once near the Bahamas/S FL late in the weekend,it may very well begin to take advantage of what are expected to be increasingly favorable conditions for development. Overnight American GFS guidance still suggests that a weaker but still legitimate tropical cyclone will track up the southeast coast of Florida. However, a more western consensus is forming among other reliable models. Strong ridging aloft near the Carolinas may induce a westward path into the eastern and central Gulf by early next week. This is a snapshot of the ECMWF valid Saturday evening. One can clearly make out a developing tropical cyclone near the Bahamas while ridging holds firm to the north.