99L: The trend has been east over the last 12-18 hours. While the ridge over the Carolinas is fairly strong, it is getting “squeezed” on both sides. A farther westward moving Gaston is allowing trofing over the west Atlantic to deepen farther south and west than original guidance had been indicating. Furthermore, the western extent of ridging may dampen out by a trof approaching from the Midwest US. In short, this means a more northwest and eventually north track up the east side of Florida has become a lot more reasonable vs what the data was pointing to at this time yesterday. As we’ve already seen day after day, additional model adjustments are probable, which is why everyone on the region still needs to keep tabs on 99L.
As for intensity, the wave axis is highly disorganized at this hour. There are no less than 3 (and maybe more) competing low to mid level circulations. It will take at least another few days before 99L is consolidated enough to even take advantage of any increasingly favorable conditions that may evolve near the Bahamas/S FL. Afterward, it truly is a guessing game. The GFS nearly loses the system altogether as it approaches FL whereas European guidance is still suggesting that a significant hurricane will be the final outcome. We are still a couple days away from having a high degree of confidence.